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Topic: Forecasts in IT

I suggest everyone to make under one-two forecast for the next 5-10 years. At the same time and competition on best Vangu we lead. Well here again all not the people farthest from IT trends sit. Mine : 1. Computers learn to talk and understand commands of people normally. On it people cease to write and read - a simple language will stir with a computer. And skill  gradually becomes the archaism, any sense will not be able to write and read, for the computer all understands also all tells. As once  a calligraphy (with the advent of ball pens). As now call into question about necessity to be able to consider without the calculator (type what for even if  25+5 consider on the calculator) - so will bring an attention to the question on necessity  to learn to write/read. 2. Vocal assistants go to masses. Even you to the grandmother buy phone without the screen which calls where the grandmother tells. Anything it is not necessary to type - all will be a voice. There will be voice applications - completely without the graphic interface. Even there will be a client for RSDN without the graphic interface -  it will be possible a voice. 3. Appears global  the Internet, now does not remain on the place earth where the vocal assistant would not work. The Internet will be more accessible than a sunlight and fresh air.

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, Mihail, you wrote: And in what convenience to users of these vocal assistants? To be strained, speak, still recognizes not as it is necessary and starts to ask again. The familiar Canadian  talks to phone. Likes knowledge to look in Wikipedia thus

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, Shmj, you wrote: S> I Suggest everyone to make under one-two forecast for the next 5-10 years. A subject amusing, but Vanga from you so-so... And what for two points about same - the vocal help, understanding of speech. Before the prediction I will explain yours : people even each other sometimes do not understand, though use much more restricted dictionary, than is accessible to the PC. Why? Yes one million reasons, from "kagtavo-sipiljavogo" pronunciations before accurate speech, but having double sense and understood only from a context, and not easier context a-lja "a kitchen subject", and any general moments of life of both individuals. And one thin emotion on the person can change in a root sense told (irony). It is obvious that possessing even  , it is almost impossible for a dry piece of iron to reveal all it. And to help by a principle " understood, made" - excuse,  this is not necessary . In other words, the vocal help WILL be, but at such primitive level that it YOU should "cave in under the changeable world" and accurately, loudly to say to a computer that you want and only from this the dictionary that at it is. S> 1. On it people cease to write and read - a simple language will stir with a computer. Do not confuse, your "literary trash" is not necessary to a computer! Writing is necessary for dialogue with each other and it anywhere does not get to as early as 5000 years (I can not longer predict, excuse). And writing is necessary not only for transmission , but also a motility, mental development. S> so will bring an attention to the question on necessity  to learn to write/read. Well if "Orthodoxy bases" pushed, I will not be surprised also to it! And it is serious, formation degradation already takes place to be And IT it is terrible. S> 3. Appears global  the Internet ... What  "appears"? Whether About satellite  the first time you hear that? ================================================================================================= it is fine, now my queue! But consider, here will be as DESIRABLE branches of evolution, and realistic - consequences of human dullness and greed. 1. Microsoft moves final down from coils because of  and for it waits or splitting on , or separation of a serious part of programmers in separate firm. In "treatment" of such enormous and confused company I do not trust, in its success - especially. 2. AT LAST greedy  will be enclosed in storage and  make many years promised "cheap, non-volatile, fast storage" in style of that promised - RAM and hard symbiosis in uniform "easier storage". For 10 years? Quite realistically! 3. Fuss from AI stops in the same place "anywhere", where it now. Anybody and never makes "the machine, speaking/thinking/pukajushchuju as the person" - too "" and is unsharply arranged our brain to rush to imitate it in silicon. Pattern recognition will be better, unconditionally, but it only a grain of that chimera that to us promised from AI. 4. The virtual reality remains in a bum - at level of beautiful pictures and useless  hands in air (as the first session in "Lawn-mower"). All of us know the reasons - physical impossibility to deceive sight a plane picture without the correct focus. It is obvious that the way to virtuality lies not through eyes, and through a brain! But some successes of the added reality at last will be - at least on manufacture. But here besides, that problem with focusing. 5. Anonymity disappears final and at all because of attempts . To simply all "mighty of this world" it is favourable - CIA, FBI, almost all selling companies, medicine... Your life is necessary to all. Certainly, it only warms up "the market " - everyones tor', anonymous proxies, the left SIM CARDS (of which already get rid that it is better to supervise you), one-time phones, masks, credit cards. . People do not want and there should not be under a cap "observers of safety" and struggle for "to be anybody" only begins! 6. The software becomes cheaper than a dirt and  a dirt. It can be and not the next decade, but the tendency is that. People , the economy goes out, and people plunge into numeral technologies more and more. Yesterday you yet did not distinguish IE from the Internet, and today already spread  with the superimposed video effect it is inevitable, so  usage of the increasing variety of programs. To buy all of them - you will be destroyed, especially for the sake of pair  so PROBABLY the companies take this step - to deliver for software dollar for a month (greetings, "clouds"!) And you - are eternal for it to pay. Here I categorically against a remote software am simple in force of "fragility of the Internet" - it never will be reliable so always there is a risk of the law . Yes, and about quality: all turns in "eternal " (as now ) since those Hindus will write a software for  - after all the company simply cannot employ others, selling a software for dollar! "" to the utmost. 7. Manipulators and remain in the form of a klavy-mouse. Do not wait here for clicks air,  a finger and other avant-guard a-lja "minority report"/"Iron man"." Never cheaply "happens"qualitatively", namely money gets in way of normal recognition of gestures for demands not foolish  in front of the camera, and  equipment of each centimeter of a hand by transmitters which are recognized by sphere of sensor controls round you. It is clear that such technologies even in the companies appear far not tomorrow! It is type a prediction that you not to wait the next decade. 8. The optics  starts to enter into life! Optical calculations which my friend-schoolboy (!) predicted in 1990, only started to acquire researches. (Thanks you, greedy freaks!) Like even something already turns out (optical fiber), but is necessary CPU where boundless luminous speeds allow to receive result is thousandfold faster silicon. 9. The set of languages simply dies. Remain literally commercially supported 3-5, remaining will be  on , occasionally  what-nt . Actually, already now such situation, but every year "" is given all more expensively and more expensively - even programmers die, which could write something on it! So all these koboly-vasiki-pearls-pl1 sink even more deeply. Yes  there, even With ++ hands over positions as the dangerous, clumsy tool!" New "languages as set an example everyones"go-rastov", the industry simply does not accept - too many factors contra upstarts and all keeps exceptional on . 10. HTML too it is time on a dump! That brothel which is now created, simply should blow up this rotten bubble! This overloaded monster explicitly needs the successor - let"similar", but much more simple in respect of design. The same XAML - very much even an interesting variant. Certainly, a web - much more  the industry, and"cheap"on expenses - here it is possible to wait for revolutions long, but it will be. I think, 10 points suffices on  comments!

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, Alex912, you wrote: A> the Familiar Canadian  talks to phone. The poor creature...  for illness such?

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, Shmj, you wrote: S> 1. Computers learn to talk and understand commands of people normally. On it people cease to write and read - a simple language will stir with a computer. And skill  gradually becomes the archaism, any sense will not be able to write and read, for the computer all understands also all tells. , and those who is able to read phrases, instead of separate words, will fly into a rage pending while it slowly speak that they would read a minimum three times faster. Then it is necessary  to broadcast images directly in a brain and it is reverse. S> 2. Vocal assistants go to masses. Even you to the grandmother buy phone without the screen which calls where the grandmother tells. Anything it is not necessary to type - all will be a voice. Aha, and passwords too.

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, Shmj, you wrote: S> 1. Computers learn to talk and understand commands of people normally. On it people cease to write and read - a simple language will stir with a computer. And skill  gradually becomes the archaism, any sense will not be able to write and read, for the computer all understands also all tells. I directly  wait I will not wait it to see! As in public places nowadays silent people with phones begin aloud ! Or to it the voice will pronounce a tape . Mu-ha-ha-ha!

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, Shmj, you wrote: S> I Suggest everyone to make under one-two forecast for the next 5-10 years. At the same time and competition on best Vangu we lead. Well here again all not the people farthest from IT trends sit. 1. PCs and  die out - there will be only phone with accessories of type of the monitor and the keypad 2. All commerce in the world will be connected with each other and customers directly, to a minimum of intermediaries. Uniform stock exchanges for purchase and sale of the goods and services for all. The robotized delivery doing unnecessary warehouses of wholesalers and . Uniform system of reputation and responses for all organizations and private persons.

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, Kolesiki, you wrote: K> 2. AT LAST greedy  will be enclosed in storage and  make many years promised "cheap, non-volatile, fast storage" in style of that promised - RAM and hard symbiosis in uniform "easier storage". For 10 years? Quite realistically! It you are simple not in a subject, it already is but not for the mass market. But  it is not cheap and with the problems and troubles. K> but it is necessary CPU where boundless luminous speeds allow to receive result it is thousandfold faster silicon. Physics  shirked?... <<RSDN@Home 1.0.0 alpha 5 rev. 0>>

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, Evgenie Muzychenko, you wrote: I eat> Ugu, and those who is able to read phrases, instead of separate words, will fly into a rage pending while it slowly speak that they would read a minimum three times faster. Me for this reason enrages when instead of that to write the text which it is read for 10 seconds do video for 10 minutes with "" "" and other bleating.... <<RSDN@Home 1.0.0 alpha 5 rev. 0>>

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Re: Forecasts in IT

Hello, CreatorCray, you wrote: CC> Hello, Kolesiki, you wrote: K>> 2. AT LAST greedy  will be enclosed in storage and  make many years promised "cheap, non-volatile, fast storage" in style of that promised - RAM and hard symbiosis in uniform "easier storage". For 10 years? Quite realistically! CC> it you are simple not in a subject, it already is but not for the mass market. You so hurry up to sparkle erudition that you pass keywords. Re-read that I wrote and think over sense instead of as the moron - saw a keyword and ran  ***  in ! K>> but it is necessary CPU where boundless luminous speeds allow to receive result it is thousandfold faster silicon. CC> CC> physics  shirked? And you generally any did not visit literature lessons?